So you just picked up the latest Android superphone of the week, with a shiny 4-plus-inch display and a hardware keyboard (or the "killer feature" of your choice). And since it's how most people get their smartphones, you probably bought it on a two-year contract.
How long will it be before you find yourself itching to upgrade, and what's going to make you finally do it?
Killer new hardware features
This one's unlikely in the near term. After an initial rush of innovation, smartphone design now seems to be mostly about bigger screens and more powerful processors. There are a couple of up-and-coming features, though: 3D screens (and cameras) and NFC.
3D screens are self-explanatory. So far they've been seen on only a handful of smartphones, including the HTC Evo 3D. The reason for that, though, seems to be because they haven't caught on. Even Nintendo has lowered the prices for its 3D game console. LG appears to be pushing the 3D gaming potential of its handsets, but so far there hasn't been a huge rush to buy them.
NFC, or Near-Field Communications, is a technology sort of like Wi-Fi that'll let you wave your phone at a sensor to buy things. The technology currently exists in the Nexus S, in the form of Google Wallet, and is already in widespread use in Japan. Until it catches on, though, at least in the place that you live, it won't really be a killer feature.
Operating system upgrades
These give your phone completely new features, like graphical overhauls or the ability to store apps on its microSD card. But they come along once in a blue moon for most smartphones, even though Google's constantly working on Android. This is ostensibly because the carriers and manufacturers have to play catch up and get it working on their hardware, but it has the pleasant (for them) side effect that upgrades mostly become reasons to buy new handsets, instead of extra features added on to old ones.
New apps that don't work
This is the biggest reason why OS upgrades you don't get and new hardware you don't buy leave you behind: Apps start to require them.
If you still have a smartphone that uses an older version of Android, like "Cupcake," it won't be able to run a lot of today's apps. And my HTC Aria, that I bought last year, isn't able to run the best 3D Android games today because of its low-powered hardware.
The Upshot
So how long will your Android phone last you? That partly depends on how often you go looking for new apps, and partly on how much you like it. I'm very attached to my Aria, so I don't mind that it can't run some of the new games and apps coming out. If my phone was my main gaming device, though, I'd probably want to get a new one soon.
If you don't mind not being able to run the latest apps, and you're still happy with your Android smartphone, there's no reason to rush to upgrade -- whether it's six months or three years old.
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